The Triad industrial market has experienced strong growth throughout the coronavirus pandemic, with 2021 resulting in historical highs in 12-month rent growth and net deliveries, while also experiencing five-year peaks in net absorption. Sales have also experienced similar growth, with highs in 12-month sales volume and historically low cap rates.
With 5.5± million square feet under construction at the time of this blog post, lower than average vacancy rates (5.35± %) appear to be organic in nature, as the market has not experienced significant supply-side strains on inventory. Leasing velocity has remained strong, with 12-month net absorption figures (2.7± million SF) easily surpassing the rolling 10-year historical average of 2.1± million square feet. As demand remains high, rent growth is expected to trend upwards, with some forecasts indicating a $0.50 per square foot YOY rent growth from Q4 of 2021 to Q4 of 2022.
Despite the current economic climate, investment in the Triad Industrial market has remained strong, with market cap rates hovering in the 6.25%-6.75% range. Market sale prices have hit an all-time high of roughly $95.00 per square foot, while 12-month sales volume figures ($423 million) have eclipsed the former historical peak of $401 Million with ease.
Various Industrial Lease Deals (last 12 months):
- XPO Logistics - 639,800 SF at $4.35 NNN | 2203 Sherrill Drive, Statesville
- Schnadig International Corporation - 263,500 at $4.95 NNN | 1818 Youngs Mill Road, Greensboro
- JELD-Wen - 112,500 SF | 2061 Sherrill Drive, Statesville
- Pine Gate Renewables - 105,000 SF at $3.25 MG | 74 W 32nd Street, Winston-Salem
- South Atlantic Packaging Corporation - 103,821 SF at $3.75 MG | 315 Cassell Street, Winston-Salem
- Plastiflex - 62,878 SF at $5.75 NNNdeal | Statesville
Various Industrial Sales (last 12 months):
- 100 Enterprise Park Boulevard, Winston-Salem - 304,200 SF Distribution Center sold for $23.8 Million ($78.24 PSF)
- 210 N Pendleton Street, High Point - 324,650 SF Manufacturing Facility sold for $16.03 million ($49.37 PSF)
- 289 Business Park Drive, Winston-Salem - 125,000 SF Distribution Facility sold for $9.15 million ($73.20 PSF)
- 2675 Annapolis Drive Winston-Salem - 115,500 SF Distribution Facility sold for $10.75 million ($93.07 PSF)
- 295 Business Park Drive Winston-Salem - 316,000 SF Distribution Facility sold for $30.05 Million ($95.06 PSF)
- 300 Penny Road, Greensboro - 1,546,000 SF Distribution Facility sold for $74 million ($47.84 PSF)
- 386 Murdock Road, Troutman - 1,000,000 SF Distribution Facility sold for $69 million ($69 PSF)
*Above data comes from a Costar analysis of 295 Class A industrial properties.*
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While demand in the Winston-Salem office market has remained lukewarm throughout the Coronavirus Pandemic, vacancy rates have stayed close to the 10-year historical average of 7.5%. Minimal construction in the last four quarters has placed little supply-side pressure on vacancy, and this trend is expected to continue into 2022. Winston-Salem’s office vacancies are expected to stay below Great Recession levels, however as office users continue to evaluate their space needs in wake of the pandemic, market fundamentals are expected to be further impacted into 2022.
Leasing velocity has remained low, with demand being heavily impacted over the last two years. While Winston-Salem closed 2020 with more than 95,000 SF of positive net absorption, an outflow of negative net absorption over the prior 12 months (-125k SF) has shown that there is little sign that the Winston-Salem office market will improve into 2022. With demand lagging behind other office markets in North Carolina, rent growth has also remained stagnant, hovering near the 10-year rolling average of 1.6% YOY growth.
Investment in Winston-Salem’s office sector has experienced similar trends as the leasing market. Market cap rates continue to remain near the 10-year rolling average of 8.5%, while 12-month sales volume ($51.2 Million) has lagged behind historical trends. Although investment has remained minimal in the last 12 months, market sale prices have seen a sharp uptick in comparison to historical norms, coming in around $150 per square foot.